Tăng trưởng GDP 6% trong quý 1 có thể được coi là kết quả của chính sách ổn định vĩ mô và môi trường kinh doanh cải thiện trong thời gian qua. Bức tranh kinh tế trên cũng được ủng hộ bởi các số liệu điều tra thị trường của các tổ chức tư vấn, chứ không phải chỉ là từ các cơ quan nhà nước.

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Khách hàng chọn mua bánh tại siêu thị trên đường Đinh Tiên Hoàng (Q. Bình Thạnh, TP.HCM)
Nhưng tình hình mới chỉ là tốt hơn so với năm năm nay chứ chưa phải quay lại với quỹ đạo tăng trưởng cao.
Quý 1 năm nay có tốc độ tăng trưởng cao nhất trong năm năm qua. Lần gần đây nhất là năm 2008 trước khi chúng ta bị bất ổn kinh tế vĩ mô.
Theo số liệu này, tốc độ tăng trưởng được kéo lên chủ yếu bởi sản xuất công nghiệp chế biến chế tạo với tốc độ tăng giá trị gia tăng trong quý 1 là 9,5% so với mức 6% cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Con số này cũng phù hợp với mức gia tăng điện tiêu thụ cho sản xuất là 17,9%. Ở phía cầu, tổng mức bán lẻ trên thị trường nội địa cũng tăng tới 9,2% so với 5,1% của quý 1 năm ngoái.
Con số mang tính thiếu nhất quán có lẽ là lĩnh vực xây dựng. Trước những thông tin về sự hồi phục của thị trường bất động sản thì tốc độ tăng trưởng 4,4% của ngành xây dựng là thấp. Có hai tình huống: con số giá trị gia tăng ngành xây dựng là đúng và thị trường bất động sản không được cải thiện mạnh, hoặc tính tin cậy của số liệu thống kê.
BỨC TRANH TIÊU DÙNG VÀ SẢN XUẤT
Bức tranh kinh tế trên cũng được ủng hộ bởi các số liệu điều tra thị trường của các tổ chức tư vấn chứ không phải là từ cơ quan nhà nước.
Chỉ số niềm tin người tiêu dùng của liên danh ANZ-Roy Morgan (công ty nghiên cứu thị trường, mới có từ năm ngoái tại Việt Nam) cho thấy người tiêu dùng Việt Nam hiện có niềm tin cao hơn so với Singapore, Ấn Độ, Thái Lan và thấp hơn Indonesia, Trung Quốc. Trong quý 1 năm nay chỉ số của VN có sự cải thiện lớn nhất.
Một chỉ số khác là chỉ số quản trị mua hàng (PMI) của HSBC-Markit (một công ty nghiên cứu thị trường khác chuyên về tài chính). Câu hỏi dành cho giám đốc mua sắm của các công ty lớn (không có doanh nghiệp nhà nước) là dự kiến trong ba tháng tới mở rộng sản xuất, tăng mua sắm, tăng đầu tư hay giảm. Theo chỉ số này, dưới 50 ý kiến thể hiện doanh nghiệp cắt giảm sản xuất, còn trên 50 ý kiến mở rộng sản xuất. Từ quý 3-2013, các doanh nghiệp đã bắt đầu mở rộng sản xuất.
Dựa theo cả hai chỉ số niềm tin người tiêu dùng và niềm tin của nhà sản xuất, đúng là có dấu hiệu cải thiện. Nếu môi trường kinh tế toàn cầu không có tác động nào quá tiêu cực, tăng trưởng GDP trong năm 2015 của Việt Nam có thể đạt 6,5%, thậm chí có thể cao hơn.
Nhưng phải nhìn nhận rằng với tốc độ này thì Việt Nam vẫn chưa phải là đã quay trở lại quỹ đạo tăng trưởng cao. Ổn định vĩ mô và cải thiện môi trường kinh doanh bằng chính sách kinh tế giúp tăng trưởng được cải thiện. Nhưng duy trì tốc độ tăng GDP ở mức 6-7,5% đòi hỏi những cải cách thể chế khó khăn hơn.
LẠM PHÁT, TÍN DỤNG VÀ TỈ GIÁ
Nếu giai đoạn trước lạm phát bị ảnh hưởng rất nhiều bởi tăng trưởng tín dụng thì điều đó không còn đúng trong giai đoạn gần đây: lạm phát liên tục giảm mà tín dụng vẫn tăng khá. Tốc độ tăng trưởng tín dụng danh nghĩa trong tháng 3 năm nay so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái khoảng 15%. Với tỉ lệ lạm phát thấp, ngay cả khi loại bỏ nhiều khoản tín dụng mới mà thực chất là đảo nợ, tăng trưởng tín dụng là cao, đặc biệt là khi tính theo giá thực. Có thể nói hiện nay Việt Nam và Philippines là hai quốc gia có tốc độ tăng trưởng tín dụng cao nhất khu vực, cao hơn cả Trung Quốc.
Sau một thời gian ổn định, bắt đầu tái xuất hiện sức ép về tỉ giá. Chênh lệch tỉ giá chính thức và tự do hiện nay đang dao động ở mức 0,5-1 điểm phần trăm.
Sức ép tỉ giá xuất hiện từ sự lên giá mạnh của đồng USD. Tất cả các đồng tiền, trừ đồng nhân dân tệ và VND, trong thời gian qua đều mất giá mạnh so với đồng USD. Trong 24 tháng qua, yen Nhật mất giá trên 40%, đồng euro 20%, đôla Singapore 12%…
Khi đồng VND neo với USD thì vô hình trung chúng ta lên giá so với các đối tác thương mại và đầu tư khác của mình. Tỉ giá tác động đến xuất khẩu và du lịch. Mặc dù tổng kim ngạch xuất khẩu vẫn tăng 6,9% với sự gia tăng mạnh của các doanh nghiệp có vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) vốn không bị tác động nhờ chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu của họ, xuất khẩu của doanh nghiệp trong nước đã giảm 5,1%. Khách du lịch đã giảm tới 13,7%.
Sau khi tỉ giá được điều chỉnh vào tháng giêng ở mức 1%, từ nay đến cuối năm chỉ còn điều chỉnh được thêm 1% nữa nếu Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam giữ đúng cam kết. Dự trữ ngoại tệ ở mức cao cho phép có thể can thiệp liên tục trên thị trường ngoại hối và lo ngại về gánh nặng nợ nước ngoài là những lý do Ngân hàng Nhà nước tuyên bố không điều chỉnh tỉ giá trong thời gian này.
Có lo ngại phải điều chỉnh tỉ giá do ảnh hưởng đến xuất khẩu nhưng quý 1 xuất khẩu vẫn tăng 6,9% (không loại bỏ yếu tố giá). Nhưng nếu nhìn kỹ thì VND lên giá cũng không ảnh hưởng nhiều. Bởi lẽ, xuất khẩu tăng nhưng chủ yếu là của doanh nghiệp FDI (hơn 90% tăng trưởng xuất khẩu là của doanh nghiệp FDI), trong khi xuất khẩu của doanh nghiệp trong nước giảm.
Năm ngoái xuất khẩu khu vực tư nhân đã khôi phục nhưng quý 1 xuất khẩu của doanh nghiệp trong nước giảm 5,1%. Câu chuyện tỉ giá không ảnh hưởng tới doanh nghiệp FDI, bởi họ nhập khẩu bằng ngoại tệ và xuất cũng bằng ngoại tệ.
Một điểm nữa giải thích cho tăng trưởng GDP là câu chuyện đầu tư công đã tăng mạnh trở lại. Đầu tư công đóng góp rất mạnh và chủ yếu là vay nợ của Nhà nước. Năm ngoái Việt Nam phát hành hơn 300 ngàn tỉ đồng (15,5 tỉ USD) trái phiếu chính phủ, kế hoạch năm nay là 11,5 tỉ USD. Và đây sẽ là nguồn tài trợ mạnh cho các dự án đầu tư công, kể cả các dự án đã tạm ngưng, giờ tái khởi động cả ở trung ương lẫn địa phương.
Trước tình hình lạc quan này, có thể dự đoán GDP sẽ tăng trưởng ở mức 6,5%, cao hơn mức dự đoán.
Tình hình như vậy rõ ràng là tốt hơn nhưng dấu hỏi lớn nhất vẫn là nợ xấu. Nỗi lo nợ xấu ngân hàng vẫn còn đó dù kinh tế đã tốt lại và thanh khoản đã được cải thiện.
Như vậy có phải là tăng trưởng bền vững hay không? Tổng mức bán lẻ tăng trưởng là yếu tố bền vững. Nếu cải thiện được niềm tin người tiêu dùng, các công ty bất động sản lạc quan… đó là điều để ta đánh giá đây không phải câu chuyện chớp nhoáng.
NHỮNG ĐIỂM CHƯA BỀN VỮNG
Yếu tố đáng lo ngại, tác động đến câu chuyện không bền vững là đầu tư công, nhất là khi mức nợ công hiện nay đã trên 60% GDP. Giữa nợ xấu của ngân hàng với nợ công của Chính phủ, rủi ro từ nợ công của Chính phủ nguy hiểm hơn. Điều này liên quan đến câu chuyện đã nói nhiều về thay đổi mô hình tăng trưởng. Về bản chất mô hình tăng trưởng của chúng ta chủ yếu dựa vào đầu tư, đây chính là điểm không bền vững đầu tiên.
Sự không bền vững thứ hai là câu chuyện giá dầu giảm. Giá dầu giảm có thể coi tương đương như một gói kích thích tài khóa mà gói kích thích này là cho toàn cầu. Nếu như không có cú hích của giá dầu giảm, kinh tế thế giới có thể còn xấu hơn rất nhiều. Tác động của giá dầu giảm cũng có thể là một nguyên nhân cho sự khởi sắc của kinh tế đầu năm, nhưng đó cũng vẫn là một yếu tố không bền vững.
Nhìn vào những con số này thì không có gì phải ngạc nhiên hay bất ngờ cả. Nó thể hiện tình hình vĩ mô trong ngắn hạn đã tốt lên. Ở góc độ điều hành của chính phủ, điều đó có nghĩa là chính sách ổn định vĩ mô và cải thiện môi trường kinh doanh trong thời gian qua đã đưa đến kết quả.
Nhưng tình hình mới chỉ là tốt hơn so với năm năm nay chứ chưa phải quay lại với quỹ đạo tăng trưởng cao. Nhìn lại thời kỳ tăng trưởng tốt của đầu những năm 2000, tốc độ tăng của quý 1 thường ở mức trên 7%. Nền kinh tế VN có thể tăng trưởng 6-7% khá dễ dàng với tính năng động của nền kinh tế. Nhưng tăng được 8-9% lại là câu chuyện khác. Bài toán nợ công nếu giải quyết hiệu quả hơn cũng có thể là động lực giúp chúng ta chuyển đổi được.
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