Việc vốn đầu tư nước ngoài (FDI) tăng vọt lên mức kỷ lục 22,76 tỷ USD trong năm 2015 và dự báo trong năm 2016 sẽ tiếp tục phá kỷ lục này, đang tạo nên một áp lực cực lớn có thể làm biến đổi trật tự và cách thức vận hành của nền kinh tế. Áp lực này có thể tạo ra những xáo trộn lớn đến sự ổn định xã hội thông qua sự tác động đến cách vận hành của nền kinh tế. Và đã đến lúc Việt Nam cần phát triển nền kinh tế bản thể, như một sự đảm bảo một nền móng bền vững cho quá trình hội nhập toàn diện trong những năm tới.
Nền kinh tế bản thể là gì?
Về cơ bản, nền kinh tế của một quốc gia luôn được tạo thành từ hai thành tố chính: thị trường nội địa và thị trường nước ngoài. Nền kinh tế một quốc gia có thể tăng trưởng bằng cách phát huy tối đa hiệu quả của hai bộ phận chủ đạo trên, với thị trường nước ngoài là tăng cường xuất khẩu và đầu tư trực tiếp, còn với thị trường nội địa là khai thác tiềm năng tiêu dùng nội địa mà một số quốc gia đang phát triển như Trung Quốc đang hướng đến.
Nền kinh tế bản thể được xây dựng dựa trên tiềm năng tiêu dùng nội địa ấy. Khi nền kinh tế thế giới giảm tăng trưởng, khiến xuất khẩu và đầu tư ra nước ngoài gặp khó khăn, thì sự ổn định của nền kinh tế bản thể dựa trên sức tiêu dùng nội địa luôn là chìa khóa để tránh cho nền kinh tế của một quốc gia rơi vào khủng hoảng.
Nói cách khác, nền kinh tế bản thể là chiếc van an toàn đảm bảo cho sự ổn định nền kinh tế một quốc gia. Điển hình cho sự thành công trong việc xây dựng nền kinh tế bản thể là Nhật Bản. Nước Nhật rơi vào khủng hoảng tài chính cuối những năm 1980, khiến cho tăng trưởng kinh tế giảm đáng kể, hàng loạt tập đoàn lớn bị đình trệ xuất khẩu, nhưng nền kinh tế nội địa Nhật vẫn rất ổn định và gần như không chịu những xáo trộn lớn. Đó là nhờ vào nền kinh tế bản thể của Nhật được xây dựng rất vững chắc. Trong số các nền kinh tế lớn trên thế giới chịu những tác động nghiêm trọng từ cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính Mỹ 2007 và khủng hoảng kinh tế thế giới 2008 thì Nhật là nước ít chịu tác động nhất nếu so với các nền kinh tế lớn khác như Đức, Anh hay kể cả là Trung Quốc.
Điều tạo nên sự ổn định của nền kinh tế bản thể là nhờ vào sự ổn định của bộ máy vận hành nền kinh tế nội địa. Khi phần lớn nhu cầu hàng hóa sản phẩm của thị trường nội địa được các doanh nghiệp trong nước cung cấp, tạo thành một vòng tròn khép kín, và rất ít chịu tác động từ những biến động kinh tế bên ngoài, thì khi đó nền kinh tế bản thể được hình thành với nền tảng vững chắc.
Nền kinh tế bản thể ở Việt Nam
Trong nhiều năm trở lại đây, nền kinh tế bản thể ở Việt Nam hầu như chỉ nhận được sự quan tâm khá hạn chế. Việc Việt Nam quá chú trọng đến thu hút vốn đầu tư nước ngoài FDI trên thực tế chỉ tập trung ở khu vực nền kinh tế hướng ngoại, trong đó các doanh nghiệp FDI đến Việt Nam lập nhà máy và sản xuất hàng hóa để xuất khẩu sang các thị trường lớn như Mỹ và EU.
Số doanh nghiệp FDI tập trung chiếm lĩnh thị phần hàng hóa của thị trường nội địa ít hơn nhiều so với số doanh nghiệp FDI tập trung vào xuất khẩu. Đó là lý do vì sao 96% số doanh nghiệp Việt Nam là thuộc loại nhỏ và siêu nhỏ, vì khoảng trống trong thị trường nội địa vẫn còn rất nhiều, đủ chỗ cho những nhà cung cấp hàng hóa nhỏ lẻ.
Tuy nhiên, điều đó sẽ không còn kéo dài lâu nữa trong tương lai gần. Đã có những dấu hiệu cảnh báo nền kinh tế bản thể của Việt Nam đang dần bị thâu tóm bởi các doanh nghiệp nước ngoài. Việc Việt Nam gia nhập các hiệp định thương mại như TPP hay các FTA đúng là đang khiến vốn FDI đổ vào Việt Nam tăng lên đáng kể, hầu hết trong đó là muốn tận dụng các lợi thế mà Việt Nam sẽ nhận được từ các hiệp định thương mại này. Phần lớn trong số đó là các doanh nghiệp FDI thuộc lĩnh vực xuất khẩu, họ sẽ đến Việt Nam lập nhà máy để tận dụng lợi thế nhân công giá rẻ và thuế suất rất thấp mà TPP đã quy định để tăng cường xuất khẩu hàng hóa sang thị trường các nước TPP và các nước đã ký FTA với Việt Nam. Nhưng không phải tất cả đều như vậy.
Trên thực tế, đã có một làn sóng đầu tư kiểu khác vào thị trường Việt Nam trong thời gian qua, đó là tìm cách thâu tóm và sáp nhập các doanh nghiệp hàng đầu trong nước, mà các tập đoàn của Thái Lan là một ví dụ điển hình. Trong số các vụ mua bán và sáp nhập doanh nghiệp (M&A) có giá trị lớn trong suốt vài năm gần đây ở Việt Nam thì hầu hết người thực hiện đều là các tập đoàn và tỷ phú Thái Lan. Điển hình như thương vụ Central Group chi 100 triệu USD để mua 49% vốn điều lệ của Nguyễn Kim, một trong những tập đoàn bán lẻ lớn nhất Việt Nam; hay tập đoàn Siam Cement Group chỉ trong vỏn vẹn có 5 tháng có mặt tại thị trường Việt Nam đã tiến hành hơn 20 vụ M&A.
Hầu hết các doanh nghiệp lớn đầu ngành trong nhiều lĩnh vực ở Việt Nam đều nằm trong tầm ngắm của các tập đoàn Thái Lan, chẳng hạn như Siam Cement Group đặt nhựa Tiền Phong, nhựa Bình Minh vào tầm ngắm, tập đoàn này cũng vừa hoàn tất vụ mua lại Prime Group để trở thành thế lực lớn nhất trong ngành sản xuất vật liệu xây dựng tại Việt Nam với hơn 20% thị phần trên thị trường.

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Việc các tập đoàn Thái Lan chọn cách thâu tóm các doanh nghiệp nội địa lớn của Việt Nam thay vì đầu tư nhà xưởng máy móc thiết bị như các doanh nghiệp FDI lớn khác, là do người Thái không hướng đến việc tận dụng cơ hội xuất khẩu, mà là chiếm lĩnh thị trường nội địa giàu tiềm năng của Việt Nam. Có thể thấy, người Thái đã khôn ngoan khi chọn một phân khúc đầu tư khác thay vì chạy đua công nghệ sản xuất hiện đại vốn không phải là điểm mạnh của các doanh nghiệp Thái Lan.
Bằng cách thâu tóm các doanh nghiệp nội địa lớn đang có thị phần lớn tại thị trường nội địa Việt Nam, các tập đoàn Thái đang hướng tới việc thu lợi từ việc khai thác thị trường nội địa giàu tiềm năng của Việt Nam. Vì thực tế là sau khi các doanh nghiệp FDI đổ bộ vào Việt Nam sau khi ký kết TPP và các FTA, thì thu nhập bình quân của người Việt Nam sẽ tăng lên đáng kể. Nó sẽ dẫn đến tăng tổng cầu của thị trường nội địa, và đây mới là thứ người Thái nhắm đến.
Điều này đồng nghĩa với việc nền kinh tế bản thể của Việt Nam đang dần lọt vào tay các ông chủ nước ngoài, thay vì chủ yếu vẫn do các tập đoàn và doanh nghiệp nội cung cấp như trước. Nếu nhìn nhận vấn đề bi quan một chút, thì nền kinh tế Việt Nam đang bị xâu xé bởi các doanh nghiệp FDI: Giá trị gia tăng mà Việt Nam kiếm được từ khối FDI xuất khẩu chủ yếu vẫn là gia công vốn có hàm lượng giá trị rất thấp, phần lớn lợi nhuận thu được các doanh nghiệp FDI sẽ chuyển về nước mình; và khi mà thị trường nội địa lại nằm trong tay các ông chủ nước ngoài thì phần gia tăng nhỏ bé ấy phần lớn cũng sẽ không nằm lại ở Việt Nam thông qua việc mua sắm và tiêu dùng nội địa.
Trong tương lai, đây có thể không phải là một viễn cảnh tươi sáng cho nền kinh tế Việt Nam, khi mà cả nền kinh tế xuất khẩu lẫn nền kinh tế nội địa đều phụ thuộc phần lớn vào các doanh nghiệp nước ngoài. Khi đó, chỉ cần một biến động dù là rất nhỏ của nền kinh tế thế giới cũng đủ để khiến nền kinh tế Việt Nam bị ảnh hưởng nặng nề. Cái gì đến nhanh thì thường không vững bền, các doanh nghiệp FDI có lẽ cũng như vậy.
Theo Một Thế Giới

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