(TBKTSG Online) – Chỉ số giá tiêu dùng (CPI) đã liên tiếp giảm đến tháng thứ tư kể từ tháng 11-2014 nhưng các chuyên gia kinh tế khẳng định dấu hiệu này không đáng lo bởi nền kinh tế không có nguy cơ rơi vào tình trạng thiểu phát.

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Đại diện Cục Thống kê TPHCM cho biết, chỉ số giá tháng 2 trên địa bàn TPHCM giảm 0,4% so với tháng 1 là lần đầu tiên trong vòng 6 năm nay. Nguyên nhân trực tiếp là do giá xăng dầu và các mặt hàng liên quan giảm giá. Năm nay giá hàng hóa vào dịp Tết cũng không bị người kinh doanh đẩy cao như trước đây do nguồn cung dồi dào, nhu cầu mua sắm không nhiều và thói quen tích trữ thực phẩm trong những ngày này cũng đã giảm.
Cũng theo đại diện Cục Thống kê TPHCM, chỉ số giá tại các thành phố lớn, chiếm quyền số cao như TPHCM, Hà Nội đều giảm so với tháng 1 trong khi chỉ số giá cả nước lấy theo quyền số ngang (theo tỉnh, thành) nên CPI cả nước trong tháng 2 đã giảm.
Chuyên gia kinh tế Ngô Trí Long nhìn nhận, việc CPI giảm giá tháng thứ tư liên tiếp là một bất thường. Thông thường, CPI 2 tháng đầu năm đều tăng so với các tháng cuối năm vì đây là thời điểm có Tết Nguyên đán. Năm nay, CPI giảm là do giá xăng dầu giảm theo giá thế giới, kéo nhiều mặt hàng khác giảm theo. Bên cạnh đó, nhu cầu tiêu dùng khá thấp khi người dân vẫn tiết kiệm, thắt chặt chi tiêu trong bối cảnh nền kinh tế vẫn chưa hoàn toàn thoát khỏi khó khăn.
Tuy vậy, theo ông Long, nguy cơ nền kinh tế rơi vào tình trạng thiểu phát là không xảy ra bởi kinh tế vẫn tăng trưởng. Thêm vào đó, chỉ số giá tháng 3 tới đây có thể sẽ tăng trở lại (ở mức thấp) khi giá xăng dầu thế giới đang đi lên, giá điện được tính toán điều chỉnh.
“Số liệu để tính chỉ số giá tháng 2 kết thúc vào ngày 15-2. Trong khi đó, thời điểm người dân mua sắm nhiều cho Tết Nguyên đán lại rơi vào ba ngày 16, 17 và 18-2 (tức 28, 29 và 30 tháng Chạp). Vì vậy, tình hình giá cả của Tết sẽ phản ảnh khá nhiều vào chỉ số giá tháng 3”, ông Long phân tích thêm.
Đồng quan điểm, tiến sĩ Trần Hoàng Ngân, Hiệu trưởng Trường Đại học Tài chính – Marketing cho rằng tình trạng thiểu phát ở Việt Nam vẫn chưa xảy ra. CPI giảm do những nguyên nhân như đã được phân tích ở trên, không phải do sản xuất đình đốn hay tổng cầu giảm.
Chính vì vậy, theo ông Ngân, đây là cơ hội để nới lỏng chính sách tiền tệ khi dư địa của chính sách tài khóa đã hết. Chính sách tiền tệ được nới lỏng là cơ hội để giảm lãi suất cho vay, tăng cung tiền, tạo điều kiện để doanh nghiệp sản xuất tiếp cận vốn rẻ, có tiền đầu tư, mua sắm trang thiết bị sản xuất, tạo ra những sản phẩm tốt, có giá cạnh tranh. Điều này là rất cần thiết trong bối cảnh hội nhập sâu với những hiệp định thương mại tự do giữa Việt Nam và các nước đã và chuẩn bị có hiệu lực.
theo: thesaigontimes

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